The long-term answer to global warming

Not only answer to global warming, but to avoid the gradual destruction of the planet by humanity.

I think that we can all agree that humanity has already altered planet earth to a significant and alarming degree. Most people would now agree that something needs to change. We need to agree steps to reduce the impact that we are having upon the planet.

Presently the discussion is all concerned with carbon emissions in terms of atmospheric gases, and the effect that this (may or may not) be having upon global temperatures. The weather, though, should not be our only concern. Ecosystems around the world are impacted, such as the Great Barrier Reef, and habitats for many species, on land and in the sea. There is only one overall cause for this damage, and one ultimate answer to the problem. The reason is the seemingly inexorable increase in the number of humans on the planet. This is noted by many, but the problem is never addressed.

Imagine a world with half the number of persons that we currently have. There would be no need to live in unsuitable places. There would be no pressure upon resources. There would be no need to pursue war and for conflict. It would be much easier to feed everyone and for all to have a meaningful life.

The idea of limiting or reducing the population has been repeatedly shied away from, but why? The solution is staring us in the face and is simple and acceptable. We do not need to impose regulation or to decree that we can only have one child as was imposed in China, where this caused huge problems when couples all wanted to have a boy child. No, the simple fact is that birth rates in Europe and much of the world already demonstrate the answer.

To maintain a constant number of people on the planet, a birth rate of 2.2 is required, that allows for those who do not reach maturity or reproduce. The fertility rate in February 2021 for France was 1.88; for Germany was 1.57; for Italy it was 1.5; for Europe as a whole was 1.56. These birth rates lead to a significant reduction in population of those countries unless there is immigration from elsewhere. As a result, in those countries, there may be short-term problems whilst there is a relative increase in the elderly population as compared to the young. That elderly “bulge” is temporary since the “Baby Boomers” born after the second World War are already starting to die, and within 30 years at most, will all be gone.

What is the reason for this reduction in the birth rate, and how does it need to apply elsewhere? What could be the end result?

It has generally been assumed that the human population will increase inexorably to entirely swamp the planet. The headmaster at my prep. school in the 1950’s was convinced of this, and told us that in my lifetime we would all have one square yard left to stand on! That was because he was simply extrapolating the population boom of the 1950’s, and assumed that the rate of increase would continue ever upwards. This has not held true, and the reasons are simple enough.

In Western Europe (and many other places) the role of women has dramatically changed. At the same time there have been significant improvements in health and dramatic medical advances. Women now have a substantial degree of equality, ever increasing, such that women have or will soon have, complete equality with men. This in contrast to women in Victorian or earlier society, when they were second-class citizens. Their role was simply to serve men and to produce innumerable babies to counter the very substantial death rate. In these countries women now have the opportunity of rewarding careers. When I was a medical student in the 1960’s, the number of female medical students was increased from almost none, to 10 percent. Nowadays, there are at least as many female doctors in training as men, and if anything, a larger percentage is required since they will always have a role in bearing and bringing up our children, so that full-time female doctors are in the minority.

The contraceptive pill was introduced in the 1960’s, and contraception has revolutionised the ability of women to control their fertility and so to be able to entirely change their outlook on life, and to participate in every activity that men formerly took for granted. Currently we see an enormous change in the participation of women in sport at all levels, as well as in all types of careers. Contraception is the absolute and total answer to the disastrous impact of humanity upon planet earth.

There remain some countries in which the birth rate remains high, and the population continues to increase disastrously. This is because women do not have equal rights and do not have easy access to free contraception. Women in those countries are fighting for their rights and wish to be treated in manner similar to those in Europe. There is currently much activity to try to improve women’s rights and to promote equality around the world. Many countries do not have good or equal access to schooling, to healthcare and economic activity. We need to vastly improve conditions in those countries; to ensure that there is access to free contraception all around the world.

Poor living conditions, with slum housing, paradoxically lead to increased birth rates. Many families living in one room in the most miserable of slums, have six, eight or more children. Only the provision of high standards of living with access to education and good employment for both sexes, will promote the desire to keep family sizes low. Poor families feel that they must produce children in numbers that will ensure survival and who will somehow support them in old age.

We need to invest heavily in poorer countries and raise living standards across the world, but most importantly, we need to ensure that access to free contraception is provided world-wide. There has been investment in disease prevention, world-wide immunisation against polio and smallpox for instance. Now we need world-wide contraception and world-wide schooling, health provision and opportunity.

There is currently a migration crisis. The only way to effectively counter this is to improve conditions in those countries that people feel they must escape from. The conditions in those countries will be difficult to improve whilst the population there continues to rise in an uncontrolled manner. First, we must provide universal access to contraception, then to work to make living conditions equitable around the world. If we do that, the population will decline. If the population could stabilise at half the level of the present, then the pressure on resources will be completely removed.